Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-23 35.685071 38.700098 41.996787 45.896427 50.419688 55.546889 61.865309
2025-03-30 31.053647 35.010368 39.630858 45.520307 52.974237 62.312087 75.277526
2025-04-06 28.153525 32.506305 37.803524 44.895152 54.429326 67.286118 86.915569
2025-04-13 25.642904 30.087359 35.651147 43.362074 54.197354 69.656882 95.157909
2025-04-20 24.775945 29.586183 35.799452 44.756726 58.015553 78.291994 115.301326
2025-04-27 23.964776 29.048264 35.793680 45.862524 61.492385 87.036357 138.773620
2025-05-04 23.167574 28.441387 35.603411 46.626982 64.494367 95.596800 165.656442
2025-05-11 22.147173 27.444465 34.763265 46.292681 65.618075 101.017620 188.433235
2025-05-18 21.185630 26.460239 33.854587 45.737607 66.251375 105.605558 211.798240
2025-05-25 20.218993 25.409168 32.769193 44.786931 66.036508 108.410519 232.101023
2025-06-01 19.325415 24.413589 31.699934 43.761656 65.540658 110.502843 251.859256
2025-06-08 18.449383 23.401164 30.546150 42.501271 64.448689 111.046178 267.046502
2025-06-15 18.240864 23.373891 30.924542 43.912114 68.817576 125.888781 356.073908
2025-06-22 17.634886 22.733953 30.321139 43.591050 69.733747 132.664317 422.933690
2025-06-29 17.022065 22.052369 29.608111 43.007425 70.013602 137.873406 493.599608
2025-07-06 16.273597 21.135201 28.472458 41.576552 68.299990 136.985963 524.026771
2025-07-13 16.149215 21.152666 28.828717 42.878331 72.745684 156.144208 790.721355
2025-07-20 15.973779 21.080807 29.030978 43.909256 76.785234 176.377613 1275.530006
2025-07-27 15.746618 20.916319 29.066733 44.621324 80.213330 196.737395 2260.342780
2025-08-03 15.349862 20.469073 28.601981 44.309997 81.043602 207.533304 3607.800500
2025-08-10 14.941310 19.987853 28.055778 43.792852 81.269895 216.066856 6123.886219
2025-08-17 14.492923 19.428443 27.351384 42.906504 80.401500 219.333095 9847.978876
2025-08-24 14.055899 18.874062 26.634180 41.949703 79.231863 220.813287 16786.928212